A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation

Zinn, Sabine and Gampe, Jutta and Himmelspach, Jan and Uhrmacher, Adelinde M. (2010) A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation. In: Spring Simulation Multiconference (SpringSim 2010), 11-15 Apr 2010, Orlando, Florida, USA. Proceedings, published by Society for Computer Simulation International (SCSI), San Diego, CA, USA, 146:1-146:8.

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Official URL: http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1878537.1878689


Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e., DYNPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Projects: CoSa, GRK dIEM oSiRiS